As expected, Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday, and he did so convincingly, 54.2% to 43.7% for his only remaining opponent Nikki Haley – or 136,000 votes to 109,000, when 75% of the votes were counted.
No surprise. No drama. It’s done.
The conclusion: The presidential election on November 5, 2024, will be between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
Nikki Haley still refused to give up and drop out, saying in her concession speech tonight that “the race is far from over.” But it is. And although Haley now returns to her home state, South Carolina, to prepare for the primary election there on February 24, it is far from certain that she will stay in, even if she would like to.
That is because it is far from certain that she will be able to raise the necessary money to compete with Trump, and because the numbers are very unfavorable to her — polls show Trump with a huge lead over Haley, 52% to 22%, or 30 percentage points.
The New Hampshire election pitted two very different candidates and two very different groups of voters.
- Trump received support from over 70% of the voters who call themselves Republican, while 66% of the undeclared voters, who were allowed to participate in the Republican primary, voted for Haley.
- 86% of Trump’s voters view Biden’s election victory in 2020 as illegitimate, while 77% of Haley’s voters say that Biden fairly won that election.
- 77% of Haley’s voters were enthusiastic/satisfied with how things are going in America, while 61% of Trump’s voters are dissatisfied/angry.
- Only 12% of Haley’s voters think that Trump is fit to be president if he is convicted of a crime at any of his four upcoming trials, while 87% of Trump’s voters regard him as fit, if convicted.
It would be fair to say that these numbers point to a serious problem for Trump in the upcoming general election. His base is strong, it is committed, it is enthusiastic and it will vote.
But it’s not enough when the numbers also show that Trump’s support among undeclared/independent voters is weak, maybe even disastrously weak, and relying only on his faithful base will not be enough to win against Biden.
However, there is no indication that Trump is trying to make his campaign message more independent-voter friendly. At least not so far. His failure to do so has led many observers to regard Haley as a stronger candidate against Biden.
It’s a strong argument but that is not going to happen. The Republican Party is Trump’s party and Trump will be the party’s presidential candidate, and that will be the focus of Biden’s campaign as the White House — post-New Hampshire — is forcefully stepping up its campaign efforts.
This also means, of course, that the 2024 primary election campaign is basically over, the shortest in modern times, although so much of it, on paper, remains: South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan next month, Super Tuesday with 16 states on March 5 and then all the way to June — but all now, really, without significance. The race is over.
Klas Bergman is a veteran international journalist and author. He originally published this article on his Substack, Notes on America, which examines American politics from the point of view of an immigrant resident of California. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.