The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan is leading in the polls for the coming presidential election by 3-5 percentage points but it’s unclear whether such an advantage can last until election day on January 13.
Media and research institutions on Tuesday released their last polls before the election. Under election rules they will be banned from announcing more polls in the next 11 days to keep new results from affecting voters’ choices.
DPP candidate Lai Ching-te and his deputy Hsiao Bi-khim have a rating of 32% while Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih and his deputy Jaw Shau-kong have 27%, a survey conducted by the United Daily News showed. Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je and his deputy Cynthia Wu have about 21%.
Lai’s team has a popularity of 38.9%, compared with Hou’s team’s 35.8% and Ko’s team’s 22.4%, a poll conducted by the ETtoday. Several other polls also showed a similar pattern.
A survey conducted by My-formosa.com, a Taiwanese media company, showed that Lai’s team can get 5.6-5.76 million votes, or 40.6-41.8% of all votes. It said Hou’s team can get 5.06-5.21 million votes, or 36.7-38.5% of all votes, while Ko’s team can win 2.84-2.99 million votes, or 20.6-21.7% of all votes.
“As the DPP is leading the KMT by only 3-5 percentage points, any small events happening in the coming 11 days can have a big impact on the result of the presidential election in Taiwan,” Yau Ching-yuen, a Taiwan-based Hong Kong commentator, says on his YouTube channel, updated Tuesday.
Yau says Hou can defeat Lai if certain incidents happen suddenly. As an example, he points to a shooting incident that allowed then President Chen Shui-bian to win the election by a very small margin and renew his term by four years in 2004.
Yau says the DPP is also facing more and more challenges from the TPP as Ko has gained support from some young voters. He says many working-class voters turned to support Ko as the DPP has failed to improve their livelihood over the past eight years.
Young voters
The Financial Times reported on December 24 that some young DPP supporters who still dislike the KMT may consider voting for the TPP this time as Ko has promised to tackle high property prices and governance issues.
The report said young voters, aged between 20 and 29, represent about 16.2% of all voters in Taiwan.
Among the interviewees, a 23-year-old voter surnamed Chou said the current government had done a poor job of explaining its decision to expand conscription for men from four months to a year starting in 2024.
Some others said they were disappointed by the DPP’s mismanagement of many matters from Covid vaccines to consumption vouchers.
These same concerns were raised when the DPP faced a setback at local elections on November 26, 2022. The ruling party won only five out of 22 counties and independent cities up for grabs, down from the seven it controlled.
Some commentators said the Chinese government has tried to stay low profile this time to avoid stimulating Taiwanese people’s anti-China sentiment, which had helped boost the DPP’s popularity in the past.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao said Tuesday that Taiwanese people should “stand on the right side of history” and get cross-strait relations back on the “right track.”
He also called on Taiwanese to promote “peaceful reunification” with China, saying it was the desire of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
His message came after Chinese President Xi Jinping in his New Year Eve’s address called China’s reunification with Taiwan inevitable.
Legislative Yuan
Apart from the presidential election, the Legislative Yuan elections will also take place on January 13.
Taiwan Public Opinion Forum chairman Michael You said last month that it may not be very difficult for the DPP to win the presidential election but it will be hard for the party to control more than half of the seats in the Legislative Yuan.
DPP spokesperson Chang Chih-hao said on December 29 that if the Kuomintang and TPP form an alliance in the Legislative Yuan, Kaohsiung’s former mayor Han Kuo-yu may become the next President of the parliamentary body. Chang said it will be a disaster for Taiwan if Han, a pro-Beijing politician, can control the island’s legislature.
Read: Voters to Tsai: get your economic house in order by 2024
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3