Chinese officials tout “Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy” as “epoch-making” and praise the “great insight” of Xi’s “Global Security Initiative.” When it comes to Taiwan, however, Xi appears stuck with a misguided and failing policy as underscored by the results of the island’s January 13 elections.  China’s policy holds that Taiwan must subordinate itself to the […]

The post Xi’s Taiwan rhetoric backfired at the ballot box appeared first on Asia Times.

A few days ago Pearl Harbor, on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, commemorated the 82nd anniversary of the Japanese attack in a ceremony attended by several hundred, including centenarian survivors. Not only did the bombing of the harbor by Japanese aircraft in what was then a US territory pull the United States into World War II […]

The post China struggles to repurpose the lessons of the Pearl Harbor attack appeared first on Asia Times.

A restoration of high-level official meetings between US and People’s Republic of China (PRC) leaders following the spy balloon crisis of February 2023 has fueled cautious optimism that US-China relations are improving.  The most important event in this purported “thaw” was the meeting between Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in California […]

The post Taiwan still flashing red despite US-China ‘thaw’ appeared first on Asia Times.

The likely meeting between Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco in November supports hopes of a “thaw” in US-China relations this year. Biden predicted such a thaw earlier this year and some observers believe they see an upturn. The outlook is less optimistic, however, if we […]

The post US-China relations have stabilized, but in permafrost appeared first on Asia Times.

A controversial take on nuclear weapons is that they have the upside of preserving peace by making war so dangerous that states try harder to avoid it.  Many international relations analysts within the neo-realist school subscribe to this view. They point out that despite decades of tense relations between the United States and the Soviet Union […]

The post There is no ‘nuclear peace’ on the Korean Peninsula appeared first on Asia Times.

Harvard University Professor Stephen M Walt asserts in a recent article in Foreign Policy that five key questions should guide US policy toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Walt’s key questions involve China’s future economic strength; the impact of US attempts to deny China access to advanced technologies; Xi Jinping’s leadership competence; the “effectiveness” of balancing against China […]

The post Four key questions for US China policy appeared first on Asia Times.

South Koreans are worried about the three-body problem. Not the astrophysical phenomenon featured in the popular science fiction novel by Liu Cixin; rather, it’s the geopolitical phenomenon that links China, Taiwan and North Korea. Because of the relationships among these three governments, a war in the Taiwan Strait could cause a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.  If the […]

The post In a Taiwan war, Seoul’s problem won’t be Pyongyang appeared first on Asia Times.

The major political parties in Taiwan have now selected their presidential candidates, kicking off the campaign season that will culminate in combined presidential and legislative elections on January 13, 2024. For cross-Strait relations, this election may be the most significant in history. China is becoming militarily capable of attempting a forcible annexation of Taiwan, and Beijing […]

The post Fateful demise of the Taiwan-China ’92 Consensus appeared first on Asia Times.

A People’s Republic of China (PRC) scholar’s recent commentary on US-China relations is refreshing in its even-handedness and optimism. The author of the July 5 essay, Wu Xinbo, is the dean of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai and has substantial experience exchanging views with US foreign affairs experts. Nevertheless, Wu oversimplifies the difficulty […]

The post US, China want to reconcile but don’t know how appeared first on Asia Times.

A retired People’s Liberation Army senior colonel recently wrote that the South China Sea “is far more dangerous” than Taiwan as a potential trigger for a US-China war.  His reasoning was that while close encounters between US and People’s Republic of China ships and aircraft are rare near Taiwan, they are frequent in the South China Sea, […]

The post China’s patient but insistent South China Sea grab appeared first on Asia Times.

China claims to be a uniquely benevolent international actor—a great power that, unlike other great powers past and present, does not practice “power politics” (self-interested bullying of smaller states) and is not “selfish” or warlike. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) government styles itself as the custodian of principles that, if implemented, would excise international relations of conflict […]

The post Mekong squeeze tests China’s good neighbor narrative appeared first on Asia Times.

Xi Jinping is building a track record of overreaching in his foreign policies. Chinese attempts to gain influence among the Pacific island states fit this increasingly familiar pattern. Last year, the security agreement that Beijing reached with the Solomon Islands stunned the larger liberal democratic countries upon which the Pacific island states have traditionally relied […]

The post How China overreached and lost its grip in the Pacific appeared first on Asia Times.

On February 21, the government of the People’s Republic of China published what it called the “concept paper” for its much-ballyhooed (by PRC officials) Global Security Initiative.  Publication of this concept paper is part of Beijing’s campaign, dating back to the early 2000s, to assuage foreign fears about China becoming a great power. It also serves […]

The post ‘Global security’ rules would bind world, not China appeared first on Asia Times.

An old question among international relations scholars is how states will react to the emergence of a relatively strong and threatening great power. The worried states might accommodate the threatening power, which would involve giving up some of their autonomy in the hope of buying safety. Alternatively, the states that fear the threatening country might […]

The post Sensing US shortfall, Tokyo and Seoul self-strengthen appeared first on Asia Times.

Plenty of analysts, including Americans, argue that improvement in US-China relations depends on the United States adjusting its behavior to accommodate Chinese concerns. This curiously absolves Beijing of equivalent responsibility. It also deflects the important question of whether the government of the People’s Republic of China has trapped itself into an inability to make the policy […]

The post No clear path to US-China reconciliation appeared first on Asia Times.

As it has regularly done for decades, during the last few weeks the North Korean government reminded Washington, Seoul and Tokyo that it has unredressed grievances. Pyongyang signaled through several gestures that the long-running crisis on the Korean Peninsula will continue. First, paramount leader Kim Jong Un reiterated in a September 9 speech that “there can be […]

The post US policy on North Korea the least bad option appeared first on Asia Times.

China, a world leader in the practice of gray-zone warfare, has suffered through what amounts to a US government gray-zone campaign involving Taiwan during the Trump and Biden administrations. In the aftermath of the visit to Taiwan by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, we are seeing through specific Chinese actions how Beijing addresses […]

The post On Taiwan, China meets its ‘gray-zone’ warfare match appeared first on Asia Times.

Several respected foreign affairs analysts have recently argued that China’s relative power is peaking and will soon go into decline, prompting Beijing to behave more aggressively between now and the end of the decade.  This view is well-argued and consequential, but – fortunately – questionable. Proponents of this view first point out the well-known obstacles to China achieving superpower […]

The post The overstated danger of a peaking China appeared first on Asia Times.

The war in Ukraine has implications for Taiwan, which similarly fears attempted forced annexation by an authoritarian neighbor. There are different interpretations of those implications. Here are mine. The war in Ukraine does not mean that a war over Taiwan is imminent. There has been much speculation that Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine makes a Chinese invasion of Taiwan […]

The post Ukraine invasion doesn’t mean Taiwan is next appeared first on Asia Times.

With a spate of missile test launches in January, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has moved back into the consciousness of the broader global community. Some observers may be asking, “You’re still here? Why?”  Seemingly against the odds, the Kim regime persists. The explanation of why involves several factors, both domestic and international. Ostensibly, the North […]

The post Why the Kim regime just won’t die: a primer appeared first on Asia Times.