China is making new quiet nuclear submarines with Russia’s expert assistance, an answer to the AUKUS alliance and the latest sign of the two powers’ converging strategic interests against the United States and its Pacific allies
The project could make it harder for the US and its allies to track China’s submarines in crucial theaters including the South China Sea and represents a direct challenge to US undersea dominance in the Pacific.
This month, Reuters reported that China is producing a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines, citing evidence that its Type 096 nuclear ballistic missile (SSBN) submarine will be operational before the end of the decade. The report said that breakthroughs in the submarine’s quietness have been aided partly by Russian technology.
Recent research discussed at a conference in May at the US Naval War College and published in August by the college’s China Maritime Studies Institute predicts the new Type 096 vessels will be far more challenging for the US and allies to monitor and track.
The research said the Type 096 submarine would compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines regarding stealth, sensors and weapons and China’s undersea capability jump would have “profound” implications for the US and its Indo-Pacific allies.
It says the advanced Chinese SSBNs will significantly complicate an already intense subsurface surveillance battle, as tracking Chinese submarines is increasingly an international effort with the Japanese and Indian militaries assisting the US, UK and Australia.
Reuters says that the covert effort to track China’s nuclear attack submarines (SSN) and SSBNs is one of the core drivers of increased deployments and contingency planning by the US Navy and other militaries across the Indo-Pacific region.
It mentions that those efforts are expected to intensify when Type 096s enter service, as the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) is routinely staging fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols with its older Type 094 boats out of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, similar to the patrols operated for years by the US, UK, Russia and France.
The prospect of quieter Chinese SSBNs is driving, in part, the AUKUS deal among Australia, the UK and the US, which will see increased deployments of British and US attack submarines to Western Australia. Australia expects to launch its first nuclear-powered attack submarines with UK technology by the 2030s.
The Type 096 SSBN is China’s next-generation underwater nuclear deterrent, representing a significant upgrade over the current Type 094 SSBN.
According to Missile Defense Advocacy (MDA), the Type 094 is primarily armed with the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which has a 7,200-kilometer range.
Matthew Funaiole and other writers mention in an August 2021 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that to hit Hawaii and the northwestern US the older Type 094 must traverse critical chokepoints such as the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel in the First Island Chain that comprises Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. Funaiole and others say the JL-2’s range deficiency and reported noisiness may expose it to US and allied anti-submarine forces.
However, Asia Times noted in November 2022 that the Type 094 is now armed with the newer JL-3 SLBM, sporting a 10,000-kilometer range that can conceivably hit the US mainland from protected bastions in the South China Sea.
The Type 094 has also undergone recent upgrades to increase its stealth and survivability. Minnie Chan notes in an October 2021 article for the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that the Type 094A and 094B subvariants have improved hull designs to reduce noise, such as a modified towed sonar array dispenser, reduced bow limber holes and new sail shape.
Despite those upgrades, China’s submarines still lag their US and Russian counterparts in terms of stealth. In a March 2023 article for the US Naval Institute, Mike Sweeney says that during the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union achieved “super-quieting” with their SSBNs and SSNs, with the US achieving it in the 1960s and the Soviets in the mid-1980s.
In comparison, Sweeney points out that China’s Type 093 SSN’s stealth is estimated to be on par with 1970 Soviet designs while its Type 094 SSBNs have noise levels similar to 40-year-old Soviet designs.
Ellie Cook notes in an article for Newsweek this month that China’s new Type 096 will likely be 150 meters long with a top speed of 33 knots and compare favorably with newer Russian SSBNs such as the Borei-class. Cook mentions that China may have up to eight operational SSBNs by 2030, including the Type 094 and Type 096, with the country currently operating four Type 094 SSBNs.
Russia may also be assisting China with its new Type 096 SSBN’s design, with the two sides “no limits” strategic partnership shifting in China’s favor as Russia becomes more and more dependent on Beijing’s assistance faced with the Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine war.
In a September 2023 China Maritime Studies Institute report, Sarah Kirchberger asserts that China’s submarine industrial base suffers from weaknesses in submarine propulsion and quieting. Kirchberger notes that, since the 1970s, Russia has been assisting China to build its SSNs and SSBNs.
She mentions that Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau was reportedly heavily involved in the design of China’s Type 093 SSN in terms of hull design, instrumentation, acoustic stealth improvement and acoustic countermeasures. She also notes that Russia remains well ahead of China in crucial submarine technologies such as quieting and nuclear propulsion.
The Type 096 may have design parallels with Russia’s next-generation SSBN. In August 2022, Asia Times reported about Russia’s Arcturus SSBN concept, which features sonar-deflecting shaping, new anti-echoic coating, a shaftless power plant and pump jet propulsion. The Arcturus comes armed with next-generation Russian SLBMs and underwater drones.
Kirchberger argues that Russia’s underfunded submarine design bureaus and industries are at risk of a brain drain to China, with the Russian government moving to stop that possibility by entering into joint production with China.
She notes that Russia could supply critical technologies such as nuclear propulsion, quieting, and hydrodynamic hull design. At the same time, she says China’s massive naval shipbuilding capacity can provide mass production capability and economies of scale.
Kirchberger notes that Russia’s state-owned nuclear company Rosatom supplied 6,477 kilos of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to China’s CFR-600 reactor on Changbiao Island in December 2022, an amount that analysts project could make 50 nuclear warheads yearly. She says that apart from nuclear weapons the HEU could also be used as fuel for China’s nuclear submarines.